Objectification of the prognosis of postoperative outcomes in abdominal surgery of the newborn. Article

K.V. Budarova1, A.N. Shmakov2, N.L. Elizarʼeva2, V.N. Kokhno2

1 City Childrenʼs Clinical Emergency Hospital, Novosibirsk, Russia

2 Novosibirsk state medical university, Novosibirsk, Russia

For correspondence: Aleksej N. Shmakov — D. Med. Sci., Professor, Novosibirsk state medical university, Novosibirsk; e-mail: alsmakodav@yandex.ru

For citation: Budarova KV, Shmakov AN, Elizarʼeva NL, Kokhno VN. Objectification of the prognosis of postoperative outcomes in abdominal surgery of the newborn. Article. Annals of Critical Care. 2019;3:65–68.

DOI: 10.21320/1818-474X-2019-3-65-68


Abstract

Background. Predicting outcomes in infants with surgical bowel disease based on routinely monitored indicators is an unresolved problem.

Objectives. To create a predicting model of the probability of survival in newborns with surgical pathology of the intestine by using the method of logistic regression.

Material and methods. The study involved 77 newborns with acute gastrointestinal pathology. All patients were divided into two groups according to the outcome. Analyzed parameters: gestational age, birth weight, dynamic evaluation of multiple organ failure at the study stages. Ranging of predictors is done using the Forward method. The predicting model is developed by the method of logistic regression. A critical level of significance is p < 0.05.

Results. High rates of gestational age (p = 0.002) and assessment of multi-organ failure on the NEOMOD scale at stage 3 (p = 0.000) had high predictive power. Body weight at birth did not show a significant effect on outcome.

Conclusions. The outcome predicting in neonatal surgery is possible at the stage of short-term prognosis. Independent significant predictors are the duration of gestation and the severity of multiple organ failure in newborns.

Keywords: logistic regression, newborns, gestational age, body weight, multiple organ failure

Received: 01.04.2019

Accepted: 03.09.2019


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